T Dog’s Think Tank: Does late-night have a future?

The “late fringe” daypart of being relevant is over. How did we get to this point?

If one were to look at the late-night landscape in the 1970s, it was quite a different world: NBC’s The Tonight Show With Johnny Carson ruled all, while CBS and ABC aired off-network series and movies

It’s an era we could be heading back to. 

On Thursday, CBS canceled Stephen Colbert’s show and the entire Late Show franchise. Politics aside, the show was losing money due to its expense, despite being the top-rated talk show. And skewing older in a daypart that traditionally attracted younger viewers (Colbert’s median viewing age was 68) was the death knell, as they are now watching YouTube or social media platforms for their entertainment. 

Technically called “late fringe”, the late-night daypart was always a place where you can find loose talk shows, horror movies, and other off-beat programming. Steve Allen and Jack Paar pioneered this type of fare as hosts of the Tonight Show, but it was Johnny Carson who took it to a new level and was the undisputed king of late-night for three decades. For two decades, CBS programmed The CBS Late Movie, mainly off-network series and movies. In 1985, it was renamed CBS Late Night, adding original T.J. Hooker episodes, Canadian imports (Adderly, Night Heat, etc.), and more young-skewing fare on Fridays, such an American version of Top of the Pops on Friday nights in 1987 and CBC import Kids In The Hall in the mid-1990s, while Crimetime After Primetime aired the rest of the week. 

Attempts to program against Carson were futile. The first victim was Joan Rivers, whose original Late Show was the first program to ever air on the Fox network. A former fill-in host for Carson, Rivers’ decision to accept the gig led to animosity between the two that would never be resolved. Rivers was removed as host in May 1987; The Late Show, aside from a brief period to air the panned Wilton-North Report, staggered with guest hosts until its October 1988 demise.

In January 1989, CBS gave Pat Sajak a 90-minute show, which was cut to sixty minutes in October and vanished in April 1990, as Sajak didn’t even host his final shows (Paul Rodriguez did the honor.) Not helping was the runaway success of the syndicated The Arsenio Hall Show, which premiered a few days earlier, drawing young viewers with a lineup of more than 50 CBS affiliates (including CBS-owned WBBM-TV here in Chicago) – with some declining to air Sajak to air his show instead. 

In July 1990, KIIS-FM radio personality Rick Dees was slotted after Nightline with Into The Night, but had the same problems with station clearance issues and low ratings. After Dees’ departure in July 1991, Into The Night limped on the air until its October cancellation. ABC wouldn’t return to late night until Politically Incorrect moved to the network in 1997 from Comedy Central, which was replaced in 2003 by Jimmy Kimmel’s show. 

After Carson retired, NBC gave Leno the Tonight Show gig instead of Late Night host David Letterman, so he jumped to CBS, which led to the creation of The Late Show. It was a smash hit, with Conan O’Brien taking Letterman’s old slot at NBC. Letterman’s move forced an already declining Arsenio to be downgraded on CBS affiliates, leading to its demise in May 1994 (Arsenio would try a comeback attempt during the 2013-14 season, but it wasn’t successful.)

The 1990s saw failed late-night attempts from Jonathan Brandmeier’s Johnny B. On The Loose, Dennis Miller, Jon Stewart’s second talk show, Stephanie Miller, and three shows trying to recapture Arsenio’s magic with Black audiences (Keenen Ivory Wayans, Vibe, Magic Johnson). Then came syndicated dating shows (Blind Date, Elimidate, Shipmates, etc.) that attracted tons of younger demos until they faded out by 2003. Comedy Central’s The Daily Show thrived after Jon Stewart replaced Craig Kilbourn.

Late-night saw a significant shake-up when Leno left Tonight in 2009, with Conan O’Brien as his successor, and Jimmy Fallon stepping into O’Brien’s slot.  After Leno expressed a desire to return, NBC gave him a nightly strip at 9 p.m. CT, as The Jay Leno Show flopped with viewers. In 2010, Leno resumed his role as Tonight Show host, replacing O’Brien in a highly controversial move. Leno left for good in 2014, with Fallon taking over with Seth Myers taking Fallon’s old slot. Letterman retired a year later, with Stephen Colbert from The Colbert Report taking his place. 

And that’s where we stand now. 

Late-night audiences have been eroding for the last fifteen years. By 2010, numerous local stations across the country began airing newscasts at 4:30 a.m. to capitalize on increasing HUT levels as more viewers began waking up earlier for work. Then came the growing popularity of social media and YouTube, as late-night moments went viral – something the major networks couldn’t monetize. Then came the cutbacks: Myers losing his band, CBS cancelling The Late Late Show, and then After Midnight. Guest hosts have filled in for Kimmel during the summer, and he is considering retirement next year.

Advertising hasn’t been robust in years. According to iSpot, late-night spending by marketers for the three 10:35 p.m. CT shows totaled $132 million, with Colbert taking $32.2 million, while Kimmel and Fallon took in around $50 million. However, ABC and NBC include digital advertising, and both men were more willing to do product placement, whereas CBS doesn’t. Still, those numbers are down from recent years as revenues for all five late-night entertainment shows (including After Midnight and Myers), totaled $220.6 million in 2024, down nearly half from 2018’s total of $439 million, as the daypart hasn’t recovered from the pandemic and the dual Hollywood strikes given viewers’ preference – especially in the 18-34  demo – shifted away from linear TV. 

So does late-night have a future? 

Given the shrunken audience, it’s likely we will see some changes. More talent are using alternative means to reach audiences: Former late-night hosts O’Brien (who once hosted a TBS late-night show) and Trevor Noah (who replaced Jon Stewart on The Daily Show) are doing podcasts, while Chicago native John Mulaney is doing a late-night show for Netflix, but so far has had modest success. 

As for networks, it’s more unclear. Would CBS return to the days of off-network reruns and bad movies under the CBS Late Night banner, or perhaps launch a news show (like they did with the short-lived America Tonight in the fall of 1990)? Could ABC move Nightline back to its post-late news slot? It’s too early to say, but those moves would be more profitable than what they have now. NBC has Fallon and Myers under contract through 2028, but after that, nobody knows. 

Perhaps the networks could look to local TV for inspiration. In Chicago, WGN-TV airs GN Sports nightly at 10:30 p.m.,  much looser than a typical sports show, thanks to Jarrett Payton. WFLD also airs a sports wrap show (Chicago Sports Tonight), but only on Sunday night.

As for affiliates, they have less freedom to pre-empt programming as they did in the past – especially in the 1980s, as CBS’s affiliates in Detroit, Atlanta, Cleveland, Kansas City, and Shreveport, La., either delayed the late-night lineup by a half-hour or didn’t carry it at all to run more profitable syndicated fare. Some station groups might be relieved to see Colbert and Kimmel go, as half of their audience feels alienated by a late-night host ripping Trump. A few years ago, a station executive at right-leaning broadcaster Sinclair blasted late-night hosts – singling out Kimmel in particular – for bashing the President and other conservatives. 

Ironically, it was affiliates who urged CBS to enter the late-night business in the late 1960s due to a dwindling number of films available to air after late newscasts. Thus, The Merv Griffin Show was born in 1969, only to last until 1972 and replaced by The CBS Late Movie, which drew better ratings in the time slot than Griffin did. 

It’s interesting that the same week CBS canceled The Late Show, a developer plans to buy the Ford City Shopping Center on Chicago’s Southwest Side, intending to raze the 60-year-old mall to build an industrial park. Although different, both are long-established institutions in decline due to changing public viewing and shopping habits, respectively and in Ford City’s case, issues also related to the area’s white flight, a constant theme in South Cook County since the 1960s. 

With Colbert and potentially Kimmel exiting, May 2026 could be quite the goodbye party, proving nothing lasts forever.