T Dog’s Think Tank: What to expect in media from a second Trump administration

For those who don’t like media consolidation and love net neutrality – you are not going to like what you are about to read

If the byline above looks familiar to you, it’s because it’s the same one I wrote eight years ago.

The world was shocked when Donald Trump won the presidency in 2016. After losing to Joe Biden four years ago, Trump got his redemption and won the White House again in 2024, beating current Vice-President Kamala Harris in a more decisive victory. Just like when he took office in 2017, you can expect changes in the media business now that Republicans have taken the White House and both chambers of Congress. The GOP generally has a more favorable stance toward business interests.

The wheels are already in motion with Trump appointing Republican FCC commissioner Brendan Carr as chairman effective the day he returns to office on January 20. Current chair Jessica Rosenwarcel announced Thursday she is stepping down and leaving the agency after eight years. 

Broadcast groups are already rejoicing as they look forward to seeing the remaining broadcast rules, including station caps, either reduced or eliminated, as cord-cutting continues to batter linear TV. “We believe that there is value to be created for our shareholders through further consolidation,” said Nexstar CEO Perry Sook, who bought Tribune Media in 2019, when Trump was in the White House. Conservative-leaning Sinclair could also swoop up more stations as broadcasters seek more leverage over cable and satellite providers when extracting retransmission revenue.

Broadcasters who own ABC, CBS, and NBC affiliates are also looking for Congress to pass a law allowing them to negotiate and collect retrans from virtual providers such as YouTube, Hulu Plus Live TV, and Fubo, which the Big 3 networks do for them. If they get the green light, broadcasters could win more money from the virtuals, forcing them to raise prices as the increased costs would be passed to consumers. Their wish list also includes a harder push toward ATSC 3.0, which means you may have to buy a new NextGen set in the next few years – at least that’s the plan. But if Elon Musk gets involved since he is expected to serve in Trump’s administration in some capacity, you may say goodbye to over-the-air television altogether. 

The elimination of the National Weather Service is also possible, meaning local TV and radio stations would have fewer tools to warn residents of severe weather in their towns – one of the main selling points of over-the-air, free TV. 

Current pending actions at the FCC – including Nexstar being forced to divest WPIX New York due to its relationship with affiliate Mission Broadcasting and the license challenge against Fox-owned WTXF Philadelphia over sister network Fox News’ reporting on the 2020 Presidential elections would also go away under Carr.

However, there are downsides. Carr recently said he would consider an FCC complaint filed against Paramount Global’s CBS for allegedly editing a 60 Minutes interview with Kamala Harris in their proposed sale to Skydance, given they own CBS stations in mostly blue-state markets like Chicago. While broadcasters are happier with a Republican administration running the agency, scrutiny over news content will now be a factor in license transfers as Carr plans to enforce public interest obligations. Days before the election, Carr chided NBC for running afoul of equal-time rules as Harris appeared on Saturday Night Live. 

Carr wrote a chapter in Project 2025, the controversial conservative playbook for how Republicans plan to govern the country in the next four years. While little was said about legacy media, he did speak about eliminating Section 230, which shields tech companies from liability.

In a huge win for telecoms, net neutrality will vanish again as they filed suit against the FCC due to its constitutionality.  

As for Hollywood, the studios would have more incentive to make acquisitions as under Trump, the Justice Department easily approved the Fox-Disney and Tribune-Nexstar deals without scrutiny. Despite a faltering stock price and billions in debt, Warner Bros. Discovery CEO David Zaslav has indicated he is ready to make more acquisitions. Hollywood studios would have more power and leverage over distributors and unions, whose WGA and SAG-AFTRA went on strike last year. The possibility of more labor unrest in 2026 may be more likely as conditions for writers and actors haven’t improved since the strikes and a career in the industry may become less lucrative.

In terms of content, we could see more of a crackdown – not about indecency, but more of the “woke” kind, targeting DEI, LGTBQ+ programming, and more as illustrated two years ago. Station groups and Hollywood studios will likely abandon these programming initiatives to get any future deals approved and keep the Trump administration out of their hair. 

Since the 1980s, we’ve seen Republican FCC chairmen change the trajectory of media, and not for the better. In the early 1990s, Al Sikes declared war on indecency, fining then-WLUP radio personalities Steve Dahl and Garry Meier. The “Nipplegate” era arrived in 2004 under Michael Powell and Kevin Martin and saw even more crackdowns, as Howard Stern went to SiriusXM and took his predominantly male audience with him. Creative, innovative, and racier programming shifted to streaming and on-demand platforms, leaving radio and linear TV mere shells for their former selves.

There’s no telling what Carr has up his sleeve when it comes to executing his agenda, but it won’t be pleasant.