T Dog’s Think Tank: Are tariffs between the U.S. and Canada hurting the entertainment industry on both sides of the border?

So far, no impact has been felt – but it’s early

If you put this trade war in an entertainment context, it’s Kendrick Lamar vs. Drake on a much larger scale. 

President Donald Trump is taking on the country where Drake is from, slapping tariffs on Canada, urging them to become the 51st state (although the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico really should be, since neither has a predominately white population, it’s out of the question), strutting around the White House and rapping his hit They Not Like Us. 

Okay, not really (after all, his voters didn’t like the Halftime Show Lamar put on.)

But our neighbors to the north aren’t taking too kindly to the umbrage, as Canadian fans booed the U.S. national anthem at every sporting event in the country, and some towns have even taken down American flags. The tension was evident during the recent 4 Nations Face-Off as Canada and the United States players had three fights in nine seconds in one game. Canada won the tournament, much to the chagrin of U.S. hockey fans. 

The hatred between the Trump administration and Canadian officials hasn’t slowed down, with tensions still running high, some Canadians have called for a boycott of all American products. So it begs the question – how will the trade war impact the entertainment industry? 

The impact so far has been small. But the longer this continues, and no one knows how long this could drag on, there will be some hurt for U.S. entertainment conglomerates – especially in a time when linear TV is struggling everywhere and cord-cutting is taking place on both sides of the border. 

On March 1, Corus, a chain of radio stations and owner of the Global Television Network in Canada, ordered all of its radio stations to play music from Canadian artists for a day, branding it “Canada Day” and excluding all U.S. acts with several Quebec stations also taking up the cause. To those who follow this business closely (like I do), the mantra rings hollow given Corus – and other Canadian media companies (Bell, Rogers, Telus, etc.) Regularly mimic their American counterparts through media consolidation and eliminating jobs, like Corus and Rogers did last month. It’s hypocrisy at its highest order. 

U.S. programming has been very popular in Canada for decades, going back to the early days of television with CBC Television established in 1952, CTV in 1961, City TV’s launch as a local Toronto UHF station in 1972, and Global in 1974, 

Bell-owned CTV, Rogers-owned City TV, and Global – not to mention the cable specialty networks they own – all air a significant amount of American programs on their schedules, with the most popular program in recent years being The Big Bang Theory. It’s too early to tell if the current backlash against anything and everything American affected their ratings or programming plans, as none of those broadcasters have yet to pull any American shows off the air. But the longer this trade war goes on, those networks could see some audience and revenue erosion and may reconsider buying American programming for their networks this fall. The appetite for American programming has already started to wane – this year’s Super Bowl broadcast by CTV drew two million fewer viewers than it did last year, while ratings were up in the United States. 

One major beneficiary could be public broadcaster CBC. For decades up until the late 1990s, the network aired American programming, including fare such as Dallas, Golden Girls, The Fresh Prince of Bel-Air, The Nanny, and off-network reruns of The Simpsons. Except for Wheel Of Fortune and Jeopardy! from 2008-12, and a few foreign, non-American dramas (such as the British soap Coronation Street), the CBC has been airing a mostly Canadian schedule since then.

It’s also too soon to tell if American streamers will be impacted by the trade wars. Canadian broadcasters have long complained about the presence of Netflix, Amazon, Disney, Paramount, and others eroding their local stations’ audiences (which leads to less revenue), and urging the government to regulate and tax such services, given they don’t face the same kind of regulations they do. So far, there hasn’t been an uptick in cancellations other than the regular churn of such services, but many viewers on Reddit have asked if there is a Canadian version of Netflix. Canada has a few home-grown services, including CBC’s Gem and CTV’s Crave (which is also a linear pay TV network.) But the longer this continues, the more cancellations we could see as there is already talk of a Hollywood boycott. 

We could also see the Canadian Radio and Television Commission – the Canadian version of the U.S. FCC, try to ban Fox News and other pro-Trump channels from Canada, which was last discussed two years ago as the channel is available from a few providers, but not on a basic tier. The ongoing conflict would be a huge boon for CanCon, a government mandate where public and private radio and television must set aside space on their schedules for Canadian-produced content, and that also includes satellite radio provider SiriusXM. Streamers – whether it’s Pluto TV or an audio streamer like Spotify are exempt, but Canadian lawmakers have been trying to draft legislation for years. 

It also remains to be seen if the popularity of American superstars would be affected. While Taylor Swift is a global icon and wouldn’t have any trouble selling out concerts north of the border, it would be a different story for Kid Rock or any Trump-supporting act. Like American radio, Canada has a similar system of corporate centralized playlists for most stations. 

On the other side of the 49th parallel, American producers are waiting to see what fallout there is from the tariffs, especially when it comes to importing shows from Canada. Nexstar’s The CW has added a few Canadian dramas to its schedule, such as Sullivan’s Crossing and Wild Cards (starring ex-Riverdale star Vanessa Morgan and former Beverly Hills 90210 star Jason Priestly), as they continue their transition to a broader audience destination. Nexstar could be forced to pay higher licensing fees for the shows if the tariffs include entertainment programming. 

Another issue is the “runaway” production as American studios often flock to Canada to shoot TV shows and movies due to lower production costs (producer Stephen J. Cannell once had a huge soundstage in Vancouver where TV shows 21 Jump Street and Street Justice were filmed.) The tariff situation won’t help Canada as it is facing increasing competition from other countries such as New Zealand, The UK, Ireland, and Australia to produce content, not to mention places in the U.S. like Georgia, Louisiana, North and South Carolina, and Chicago due to generous tax breaks. 

Certainly, the tariff war between the two countries would hurt more than people’s pocketbooks. Demand for American movies, music, and other entertainment may decline, and this trend could extend beyond Canada. But the Trump White House could care less as the President isn’t a friend to Hollywood or the media business, and the American media conglomerates – in an era of seeing their traditional platforms in decline while trying to please him and his administration so they can get more deregulation, are stuck between a rock and a hard place.

Meanwhile, Canadian broadcasters have more to lose if they remove all American content and replace it with home-grown content, which might not bring in the same ad dollars or ratings, even if it’s under the guise of “patriotism”.

It’s a loss-loss for everyone, and we, the viewing and listening public are going to suffer on both sides of the border. 

[Editor’s Note: An earlier draft incorrectly stated the Canadian version of SiriusXM is not subject to CanCon regulations.]